[SMM Analysis] Macro factors drove nickel prices to rebound again, with domestic nickel inventory accumulating slightly.

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Nickel prices rebounded this week. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2509) opened at 119,510 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week and closed at 121,180 yuan/mt on Friday, with a weekly gain of +1%. The latest quote for LME nickel was $15,150/mt, with a weekly gain of 0.87%. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel this week was 121,870 yuan/mt, up 1,300 yuan/mt week-on-week. The premium for Jinchuan nickel remained stable at 2,100-2,400 yuan/mt, while the premium range for mainstream electrodeposited nickel in China remained stable at -100-300 yuan/mt this week. Spot trading volume remained low, with weak downstream demand and low purchase willingness.

Macro perspective, the US added only 73,000 new non-farm jobs in July (expected 104,000), and the data for May-June was significantly revised down by a total of 258,000, with the unemployment rate rising. The data sparked market concerns about an economic slowdown, causing the US dollar index to fall and nickel prices to rebound slightly. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that "two interest rate cuts this year are still appropriate," releasing dovish signals that further weighed on the US dollar. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to oscillate amid the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, supported by weak fundamentals and macro sentiment, with a price range of 119,000-123,000 yuan/mt.

Inventory side, the inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Zone was approximately 4,700 mt this week, down 500 mt WoW.

Domestic social inventory was approximately 40,600 mt, up 1,086 mt WoW.